Anniversary of World Trade Center bombing—A Black Swan Event

Nassim Nicholas Talib, author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, provides insight to the significance of this event. It has some powerful lessons, but I am not going to deal with them now.

As part of an exam today I asked students to reflect on what happened on this day seven years ago. Most of them would have been 13 or 14 years old. Out of 20 students few seemed to have any appreciation for what took place. Some were not aware of the number of aircraft involved and none knew that 3000 people died in all the disasters.

Student observations

Several students recognized the new status that "terrorists" received. They also recognized that some people have a tendency to label all Arab peoples as terrorists, which is unfortunate and unfair. It is much like the time when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. Immediately the Japanese in the continental United States, many of whom had been here several generations, were persecuted and moved to interment camps where they would spend their existence until the end of the war.

We also have the wars, first in Afghanistan and then in Iraq in the war against terrorism. But terrorism knows no battlefield. Anyplace can be the battlefield. The enemy can attack without warning and is difficult to control when we use conventional warfare tactics.

For a short period of time churches experienced significant growth, but it was not long lasting.

Good observations: "This event changed our nation forever."

"It showed the world what catastrophic damage a few people can cause."

"However, security, travel, and basic American freedoms have been altered."

Talib noted in his book we tend to spend our time analyzing what happened with the intent that we will keep it from happening again. For example, the intensity of airport security. Also the price of oil and petrol at the pumps. And the effect on Wall Street. But that is the nature of a Black Swan event. It comes in an unexpected fashion and thus there is no way to prepare to deal with it. Instead we have to deal with the aftermath.

The student who said, "This event changed our nation forever," saw the real picture. I'm sure studies will come out this week discussing the difference what it was like before 9/11 and what it is like after 9/11. The highest price we have paid is the loss of personal freedoms in the name of security.

The terrorists could not have found a more effective way to wage war than what they did. We are still attempting to bring them under control. They are still popping all over the globe and terrorizing people. If history has anything to say about this, we discover the terrorists usually win. A major change in the style of warfare gave the colonists the edge over the British who were still fighting wars in the old fashioned way. Terrorists exploit the statement, "All is fair in love and war." There are no rules. The one who is successful will be the winner regardless of the tactics.